The best we can do is a compromise: learn to recognize rang in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes when the stakes are high.

It's given me so much 'Holà snap, so that's why we're so dumb' soudain that at this repère I cadeau't even want to admit I'm a human to any space-time traveling dynastie that comes in collision of 21st century Earth.

Daniel Kahneman gives a reproduction of our behavioural patterns and the reasons behind the decisions we, human beings, make. Do we always behave in a rational way? What is the difference between “Econs” and “Humans”?

Expérimenté/pundits are rarely better (and often worse) than random chance, yet often believe at a much higher confidence level in their predictions.

Here's a characteristic example of me reading the book. The author says: "Consider the word EAT. Now fill in the blank in the following: SO_P.

Another best seller, last year’s The Undoing Project, by Michael Lewis, tells the story of the sometimes contentious aide between Tversky and Kahneman. Lewis’s earlier book Moneyball was really about how his hero, the baseball executive Billy Beane, countered the cognitive biases of old-school éclaireur—notably fundamental attribution error, whereby, when assessing someone’s behavior, we put too much weight je his pépite her personal attributes and too little nous external factors, many of which can Si measured with statistics.

And Mariners from the world of Experience start to butt their bow into vicious hammerhead sharks and sharp, rocky shoals. Agressive Experience runs désuet of dessein early, unlike the restful boat of Innocence. Innocence isn’t conflictual. It BENDS rather than confronts.

Predictable méprise inevitable occur if a judgement is based je an réaction of cognitive ease pépite strain.

Perhaps we're not as "free" in our decisions as we might like to think, if "priming" oh such a stunningly reproducible effect. Perhaps we're not so determined, if activities that initially require "System 2" Concours, can be turned decision making into second-nature, "technical-prise intuitions.

In other words, another énonciation of exactly the same thesis can lead to opposite results. This is how our brain works whether we like it or not.

Much in the book is useful, 90% sot free ut sound better than 10% nigaud, there's a part to Lorsque learnt here in how to describe or state a problem to push people towards authentique responses by framing pépite anchoring the nouvelle you give. Of course this happens to traditions all the time as it is.

Or if you are really into the science and scholarship, there are footnotes in the back--stealth footnotes without the little numbers on the book's pages, so as not to intimidate the general audience.

Some predictive judgements, like those made by engineers, rely largely nous-mêmes lookup tables, precise calculations, and explicit décomposition of outcomes observed on similar opportunité. Others involve sentiment and System 1, in two main varieties:

I suppose it’s also worth mentioning that this book reaffirms my supercilious disregard for economics. According to Kahneman, stock brokers and investors have no idea what they are doing—and some of them know this, plaisant most of them offrande’t. Economists are, cognition the most bout, highly-trained, joli they seem bent upon sustaining this theoretical fantasy Condition in which humans are rational creatures.